Raleigh, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

265
FXUS62 KRAH 190102
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
900 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* The threat of severe storms through tonight has expanded in scope
  and probability, with a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) now covering
  northern and western portions of central NC, with a Marginal risk
  (level 1 of 5) in our southeast areas.

* The risk for isolated bands of heavy rainfall this evening into
  early Fri morning has increased. Areal coverage of heavy rainbands
  appears limited, with high uncertainty as to its location, so will
  not issue a flood watch at this time, but will monitor for this
  potential closely through tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 305 PM Thursday...

1) Scattered strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging
straight-line wind gusts are possible this afternoon through mid
evening over north-central NC, and later tonight mainly over the
western and southern Piedmont.

2) Localized torrential downpours and training rainbands will bring
an isolated flooding risk tonight into early Fri.

3) A Heat Advisory remains in effect today through early evening for
the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain.

4) Increased Fire Danger continues today as strong gusty winds and
hot temperatures overlap with critically dry, drought-cured fuels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of
producing damaging straight-line wind gusts are possible this
afternoon through mid evening over north-central NC, and later
tonight mainly over the western and southern Piedmont.

We`re watching two foci for severe storm potential from now through
Fri morning. First, a cold front to our NW from NY across PA and the
Ohio Valley will slowly approach our area through tonight. A
prefrontal band of storms is ongoing from the northern NC mountains
across the VA border and far N NC, within a zone of 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear and around 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE with strong
heating. While the DCAPE is greater over VA, these storms will still
be capable of strong to severe wind gusts across our N through early
to mid evening, with isolated hail as a secondary threat. These
storms should remain largely scattered in nature, and should fizzle
gradually with loss of heating and slightly lower deep layer shear
by mid to late evening.

Second, the remnant low of once-TS Arthur will track ENE across AL
and N GA and across the Carolinas through tonight and early Fri
morning attending a substantial precip shield. As it approaches, low
level shear will increase over our area due to the strengthening and
backing low level flow, particularly along a mesoscale warm front
extending ENE of the low that is projected by some CAMs to lift into
the southern portions of central NC overnight. While the timing is
such that SBCAPE will be waning, the 12z HRRR forecast soundings
near FAY valid around 09z-10z Fri are a bit concerning with 500-1000
J/kg SBCAPE south of the meso warm front, along with 150-250 m2/s2
of 0-1 km SRH with the backing surface flow, amid low-70s dewpoints
and high low-level theta-e. Given this potential for somewhat long
and curved hodographs and low LCLs along with moderate instability,
isolated tornadoes are possible, especially with any discrete cells
on the E side of the approaching low. This threat may extend into
the central and southern Coastal Plain into Fri morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Localized torrential downpours and training
rainbands will bring an isolated flooding risk tonight into early
Fri.

Despite the ongoing drought over the area, there is a risk for
locally heavy rainfall rates potentially leading to isolated
flooding. First, slow and training cells across our northern
sections this afternoon could produce pockets of minor flooding in
areas of poor drainage and urban areas through early evening. Then,
from tonight through early Fri, as the large rain shield moves in,
training of rainbands will be possible mainly in areas to the north
and east of approaching low, as PW will be 150-175% of normal. Any
outflow from this afternoon`s convection could help further focus
bands of heavy showers and storms. But confidence in where such
bands might set up is low, and the areal coverage of heavy rates
appears to be somewhat limited. As such, will not issue a flood
watch for now, but later shifts will closely monitor the situation,
and a more short-fused flood watch may be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A Heat Advisory remains in effect today through
early evening for the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain.

No change to the earlier-posted Heat Advisory. The 12z GSO sounding
had a low level thickness of 10 m above normal, along with an 850 mb
temp of 20C, close to the daily record. Clouds and convection moving
into our VA border areas is hindering the afternoon heating there
currently, but elsewhere, sufficient insolation among the convective
cu is allowing temps to reach the low-mid 90s already, and area
observations including NC Econet sites are already reporting heat
index values near or over 100F outside of the W Piedmont. This
dangerously hot weather will persist through early evening, bringing
a risk of heat illnesses, especially for those working or exercising
outdoors and anyone without adequate cooling, shade, and hydration.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Increased Fire Danger continues today as strong
gusty winds and hot temperatures overlap with critically dry,
drought-cured fuels.

Blustery and gusty SW winds have materialized as advertised, with
sustained speeds of 15-25 mph common, and frequent gusts of 25 to 35
mph. We`re starting to see some min RH values in the 35-45% range,
and while this is not especially critical under normal
circumstances, given the extremely dry fuels reported by field
forest service personnel, the risk of fire ignition and dangerous
fire behavior persists today, and the Increased Fire Danger
statement will remain in effect. This risk will be amplified by
erratic and shifting winds and gusts in and near storms. Anticipated
arrival of rain through tonight should help moisten fine fuels
enough to reduce the fire danger for Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 905 PM Thursday...

Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to threaten the
region through late evening, mainly NW of KFAY. Otherwise,
additional bands of convection will arrive later tonight.

As low pressure approaches from the WSW, steady moderate to heavy
showers and embedded storms will spread into and through central NC
from W to E through the overnight hours and into Fri morning. Cigs
are expected to drop to MVFR then quickly to IFR at INT/GSO by
around 05z, to RDU/FAY by around 07z, and RWI by 08z, with high
coverage of showers and a few storms, especially at FAY where a
storm or two may be severe after 08z. MVFR to IFR vsbys are also
possible within these showers and storms. This convection will exit
W to E mid morning through early afternoon Fri, with INT/GSO
expected to trend to VFR 13z-15z Fri and RDU/FAY/RWI trending VFR
15z-18z. To further add to the potential for adverse aviation
conditions, gusty winds will continue into this evening, sustained
from the SW 10-20 kts with frequent gusts up to 20-30 kts.
Mechanical turbulence may occur. Winds will decrease by mid to late
evening but will become more shifting and erratic late tonight
through Fri as the low crosses the Carolinas.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, any lingering rain or sub-VFR cigs at RWI at
18z will quickly exit, leaving VFR conditions dominant from mid
afternoon Fri through at least Sun. We`ll have a chance of sub-VFR
stratus Sun night into early Mon, then our next chance of showers
and storms will be Mon into early Tue with the next frontal system.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 18: KRDU: 98/2015 KFAY: 102/1944

June 21: KRDU: 101/1933

June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 18: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 77/2025 KFAY: 76/2017

June 19: KRDU: 73/2025 KFAY: 77/2017

June 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933

June 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening
for NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett
CLIMATE...RAH